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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: BigBull who wrote (66676)5/19/2000 6:58:00 PM
From: jim_p  Read Replies (3) of 95453
 
I fun exercise to give you something to think about over the weekend. When you sell your shares the table below will give you some idea of the upside in oil and gas stocks at the higher end of the DCFPS multiples during the last oil cycle.

I used ML estimate of DCFPS with was based on $25.00 oil and $3.00 NG adjusted for todays stock closing price.

Based on today estimate of 2000 cash flow and using the highest cash flow multiple reached during the last oil cycle for each stock, the following is the potential stock price for each stock at the end of this cycle.

...........$S.....P/DCFPS... High DCFPS... Adj.....Adjusted
..........05/19.....05/19.....Prior Cycle..... Mult.... Stock $
SFS......$10.94......4.19......10.00.........2.39........$26.13
XTO.....$18.06......3.83......15.00.........3.91........$70.71
THX.....$22.50......4.01.......7.50.........1.87........$42.06
HSE.....$27.38......3.45......10.00.........2.90........$79.45
EEX......$3.56......1.17......12.00........10.29........$36.67
PXD.....$13.31......4.28......15.00.........3.50........$46.62
KMG....$58.75......4.65......12.00.........2.58.......$151.76
OEI.....$14.88......4.78.......8.00.........1.67........$24.90
NBL.....$39.50......5.28.......7.50.........1.42........$56.08
APA.....$58.88......6.79......12.00.........1.77.......$103.98
PPP......$24.94......4.73......14.00.........2.96.........73.86
BR......$44.81......7.06......10.00.........1.42........$63.45
EOG....$31.06......7.71......10.00.........1.30........$40.31
Average...............4.76......11.00.........2.31

Have a good weekend

Jim
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