All Clowns Must Be Destroyed Message Board

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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (34058)	5/19/2000 8:44:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 42523

it is certainly possible. i'd like to see the stronger indices to join the fray though. i'm still trying to determine whether the current combination of liquidity flows and bearish sentiment build-up will give us another snap-back rally or if we're on the cusp of a total loss of confidence collapse. your point about margin debt is quite a valid one. in addition to that i have the impression that the growth stock fund managers are increasingly desperate in their attempts to talk the NAZ up...if i got a dime for every time one of those jokers said on TV that the bull would resume shortly with tech in the lead over the past few weeks, i could probably go on vacation. i conclude that they're all waiting for a rally to sell into...and just as during a strong bull move like the one from October last year people are waiting for a pullback to buy that never materializes, the hoped for rally may be similarly conspicuous by its absence. it really smells like the right set-up for a nasty little shock...everybody's pontificating as to how the market's looking 'beyond' the rate hikes, and how everything's still copacetic really, while the market may be already in the process of discounting a rather less benign future. i remember Tokyo well....when the market began its collapse (after 200 bps. of discount rate hikes) everything looked just fine...very few people thought that things would turn as sour as they did. the high level of margin debt is indicative of the complacency that still reigns. i have this idea that the stresses in the credit markets are indicative of a pricing in of increasing default risks. it's not just margin debt that's on the line here...the whole house of cards looks shaky imo.

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