I think some on this board are being unduly pessimistic about NOVL. I am not a NOVL cheerleader - as a matter of fact, NOVL has been in my regular stable of "good shorts" for over a year now (I even posted here last year when I was shorting NOVL). So, please do not think that I am an apologist for NOVL or management. But there is such a thing as "overkill". Personally, I covered my short a bit early (just above 11 on the day of the big drop), but realistically there is not much downside from here IMHO. If NOVL did not put in a bottom today, it is within spitting distance. Therefore, for those who want either a good trade, or want to establish a longer term investment position, this (around $9) is an excellent level to get in, IMHO. I doubt many are still shorting NOVL (I certainly wouldn't). The bad news has been priced in. And forgetting about the technical reasons for the price action - NOVL still has tremendous value. The technology alone is worth billions, and that value will be unlocked - you can be sure of that. A whole raft of companies would give their eyes teeth to get their hands on NOVL technology. This is not a company on the verge of bankruptcy. The problem has been execution, corporate culture, marketing and - I hope this doesn't sound prejudiced, but NOVL needs to get out of Utah, they need to relocate to some place like Silicon Valley where they are exposed to fresh blood and better quality of enterpreneurial management. I am confident NOVL will live to fight another day - or will be taken over. One thing it will not do, is become a delisted stock, so the extreme pessimism on this board is unwarranted IMHO. Folks, wake up - $9 is _C_H_E_A_P_!!! The market is over-reacting, and the price is being driven by technical factors. Don't get fooled into throwing in the towel at the exact wrong moment.
All IMO.
Morgan |
