Expecting a brutal market selloff soon.
With a hostile Fed showing no signs of backing down coupled with no earnings or other catalysts now, this looks to get quite ugly just like in April all over again.
The net index and telecom index already broke critical support today, the nasdaq is holding on by a thread. The chart patterns are looking oh so incredibly ominous on just about everything.
With the VIX at 30, there is not much fear, STILL. Amazing. In 1998 that fear ratio hit 60. I think the high valuation issues are going to get totally taken apart, and everything else stands to get swept aside in sympathy.
For a little balance, at least GNET held up well this week, though no one should be under any false illusions that it will hold in a market collapse.
Also, some other potential sentiment positives, the Investors Intelligence bearish newsletter ratio is spiking up. In the past when it has spiked up to high levels and then pulled back, that was a good thing.
The ARMS index for the nasdaq is close to the highest oversold reading in 10 years. That could be good, but it could keep getting more oversold too. It was extremely oversold before the worst days of the 1987, 1996, 1997, and 1998 crashes and mini crashes. Didn't stop huge percentage downmoves.
The McClellan Oscillator is -57. It was -7 on Thursday. Major bottoms come from readings of -150 or lower, the nasdaq Mc. even hit -300 in 1998.
As usual, there are conflicting messages, but the Fed and higher interest rates override everything. |
