Manfred, I was not real sure whether you were serious of just jacking with me but I did answer the question best I could on CSCO. I did see heavy selling at the close and it could be that rumor (which I knew nothing about).
I think people buying into these dips (unless they rotate quickly) when it changes are on dangerous ground. I tried several long trades last week and had to get out of all of them and glad at this point that I did. Now that could change but I am suspicious of strong rallies because some of the strongest rallies one will see in in bear markets. Just look at the Naz chart. See those strong rallies that everyone called a bottom? Wasn't ...was it? Strong rallies for a couple of days and if you can catch one you can make good money but I it did not pay to ride it too long. Some are calling it bear and some are not. I am trading it like a bear until it proves otherwise.
What happens is everyone is afraid of being left behind because of the way the market has acted in the last few years. Well we were in a mania but peoples attitude has changed. I hear the pundits saying "Well it went down on low volume". Unless there is money (and lots of it) coming into this market it will fall of its own weight.
Pull up YHOO, AOL, and some of the other internet stocks and look at the volume (weekly chart). The volume fell off in those long ago.... in the last couple of months. Look at CSCO's chart from 7/98 through 2/99 on a weekly basis. See how the volume fell off after that period? Then see how it picked back up at the top? Notice that volume increase on CSCO w/e 4/14/2000. Then notice the next 2 up weeks on CSCO how the volume decreased then how it increased on the sell off in the last 2 weeks. Now technically CSCO is oversold and that Star just on top of the 200 day is bullish but in light of the heaving selling I saw at the close, I just don't think I would be too quick to jump on it.
Now on a couple of others that I am short on (in and out). MU and AMD....go to your favorite insider selling site and look who has been selling these stocks. If the people who should want to own them don't want them...neither do I.
Now I know I will catch hell over this on AMD (BTW, I love AMD processors and think they will give INTC a run). But, AMD has a 10% (around $4)gap to fill down at mid 40 level. It will fill that gap. Maybe soon .. may be later but it will fill it.
Look at chart of FDX. Think it was Dec 1998 FDX gapped up big on news that you could now track their shipments over the internet and I think order pickup over the internet(WOW!!!). I told a partner that I wanted to be short that stock when it got ready to fill that gap. Back in June last year I told that same person that FDX looked like it was ready to fill that gap. His statement to me was "For that to happen the market will have to crash". My statement was that I didn't know about a crash but it would fill it and it did w/e 2/25/2000. Quite a long wait. Well that is what I am basing my AMD position on. Now AMD may go to 100 first but my money says it will fill that hole. Should you or anyone else short it based on what I just said. NO! You should only do that if you believe YOURSELF that it will go there. You have to be convinced that or they will shake you out.
DON'T EVER EVER buy or sell a stock based on what I say and DON'T EVER do it based on what some analyst says and especially do ever do it because of what you read on SI or any of these stock sites. I read them because I know to discount 99% of what they have to say and I know that 99% of them are biased opinions. If you think they aren't, just go to DELL, AOL, CSCO, INTC, or any of the others and tell them their stock is somewhat overvalued or has gotten ahead of itself and see what happens. They won't ask you why you think that.. they will immediately call you an idiot and give you 25 reasons based on "history" and "feelings" why it will forever go up.
Go here and notice the date of the post and pull up a LU chart. Now Gary will call this "I told you so" but that is BS. It is to make my point in the above paragraph.
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Message 13046284
Did I want the people on LU thread to sell it because I was short? Hell, I didn't care one way or the other. I knew the institutions that put it back up there would handle that. I was honestly trying to convince anyone that would listen not to fall for the head fake that was being put out to sucker them in.
I am not saying I get em all right nor am I saying I am somekind of guru because there is no such thing as far as I am concerned. Just do your own thinking and don't let some clown do it for you because they become so biased they can't see the forest for the trees.
Do I want someone to sell CSCO or AMD or MU? I could care less. Just don't fall into the trap so many fall in and think they always go up. They don't. Now is CSCO a good company? Sure they are. What are they worth....I really don't know...they may be a value here but not for me. Now if I had already ridden it down this far, I would have to think about it before selling it.
Monty |
