TTM PE for Klic right now is 35-40.
That is quite high. So I should buy, right?
Or, am I thinking wrong again?
During last December's slump people were screaming. 'end of cycle! end of cycle!' but they were wrong then and you are right now, right?
And of course I only bring up Fidelity's 1 million share purchase of Klic during the first quarter of 2000 because I've completely lost my objectivity, because I'm in love with the stock and, most of all, because you are right and Fidelity and everyone else close to the sector is wrong.
And when Briefing.com chose Klic to be one of their 'value plays' about 3 months ago (one of only 6 or 7 stocks to be so chosen) they were completely ignorant to the fact that the company was in a cyclical industry....which was about to tank.
And the fact that Klic continues to rank as an S&P 5 star stock, their highest rating, and the fact that S&P's technical rating for Klic recently (end of April) flipped to bullish... these are just more indications of the sheep like mentality on the street to follow WHATEVER the IR department of a company tells them.
Gee, how could I be so dense about all of this. Golly I've learned so much.
BTW, you're a real artist at taking things out of context to form a viewpoint consistent with your own: I originally mentioned the insider sales at TER (and other companies) because they occurred at PRECISELY THE SAME TIME THESE COMPANY'S STOCK PRICES WERE SOARING. Since you totally missed my point the first time through, and totally ignored my alternate explanations the second time, I'll spell it out so you can understand: the correlation between insider selling and stock prices in the semi-equipment industry is very low. In fact, it may be somewhat positive. Do you understand what a positive correlation means here? The more insider selling, the higher the stock price.
And you're right in this case: I don't think you can get a clearer declaration than that!
The company officers you listed sold less than 5% of their total holdings (including options) of the company's stock they own. Thus their sales are trivial anyway. Prove me wrong (you ignored the options statement in my previous post) Please also explain to me how, on the one hand, you don't believe the problems (your word) with Klic are NOT company specific, while, at the same time, you go on and on and on about the terrifying insider selling....by implication proclaiming there must be something wrong with the company.
So if there's nothing wrong with the company (and I don't believe there's any problem with Klic), why aren't company officer's across the semi-equipment spectrum selling in anticipation of the downturn (recall my statement about selling had to do with the action over the last 18 months, not within the last month). And since company insiders at Klic are selling to a degree that makes you 'take notice' - to a degree that you feel sets them apart from their peers - and there's nothing wrong with the company, and you feel the insider selling will eventually lead to a lower stock price, and there's nothing wrong with the company....
You present us with a logical conundrum: you believe the company is fine, and you believe the cycle may be ending. However, you feel the 'massive ' insider selling means the stock will go much, much lower - in other words, it will perform much worse than its peers.
But why would you think the stock of a company that is essentially OK perform worse than its peers? If Klic's 'problems' are not company specific, then you would expect to see precisely the same degree of acute insider selling across the equipment spectrum....and you don't!
So are the 'problems' you perceive company specific or not? If they are - and this is reflected by the insider selling - why did you just say the 'problems' are not Klic-specific? And if the 'problems' are not Klic-specific, then why aren't insiders dumping shares across the board, which they are not doing? Are Klic insiders so much more perceptive than most?
I don't think so. They're panicking in anticipation of a non-existent downturn. Insiders are selling lacking real-world evidence to support such behavior. Fear was driving their behavior.
And finally, in the context of a post where you failed to respond to my questions that would have significantly weakened your stance, you question MY objectivity. Talk about strained credulity. |
