SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 684.83+0.6%Dec 22 4:00 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: KyrosL who wrote (51407)5/20/2000 7:34:00 PM
From: Whistler30  Read Replies (3) of 99985
 
Kyros;

You make some rather interesting assumptions about human behaviour but I'm not so sure - especially if one takes the long view.

The average person knows they do not have enough funds for retirement now and they will never be able to achieve that goal at 6, 7 or even a 9% return. That may not be rational thinking but I think it's probably pretty prevalent.

IMHO the stock market boom (apart from the irrational exuberance of October to March) and the resultant inflation of PE values is not about technology, manias or Alan Greenspan - it's primarily about demographics. Forget about this blip in interest rates and the business cycle - over the long term the composition and economic behaviour of the population are the most important determinants of the price of money and equities. Demographics tells us that the savings rate will increase as the bulk of the baby boom bulge moves into their forties - this means more savers, less spenders, and a decrease in the price of money and interest rates. The effect on stocks goes without saying. In the last half of this decade when the "boomers" start to retire, the money will start to leave the stock market as was the case in Japan in the mid 80's - but IMHO it will fizzle out rather than take a dive.

Regards,

Whistler
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News