Hey Bob,
So you found me on my worst mistake since getting serious on the market. Talk about a bad management team, these guys couldn't punch their way out of a wet paper bag. Their mistakes rank up there with a McDonalds being out of hamburger meat!
So you drove by InTest in Cherry Hill? Thought you were going to be up in RI or CT! Too bad I did not follow up on your message regarding your InTest run ... I live 5 minutes from InTest, we could have met and had a few brews!
A real funny thing happened last week while I was at the gym in Marlton. I ran into Hugh Regan, CFO of InTest. Turns out he goes to the same gym that my dad and I go to. He was running later than normal and I was running early. We even go the same three days per week. Small damn world!
COHU has been acting pretty funny lately (actually so has INTT). TC2000 looks much better for INTT than for COHU. There has been lots of talk on the COHU thread regarding some SEC issue effecting the equipment guys. Wish I know what you guys were talking about??
SBSE looks to be under slow steady accumulation. BOP finally has turned green again. I went to the analyst meeting in NYC a few weeks ago. Very interesting being the only non-pro at the meeting. Had a great chance to talk to all the SBSE folks. The company is not the company I thought it was ... but if things go as scheduled, it could be a better company than I thought. Looks like things hinge on when Ericsson roles out it wireless internet business here in the US. SBSE has 12 boards in each base station that Ericsson sets up. This order is going to be very big in FY 2001 for SBSE. The big question is when exactly will shipments begin. The date has slipped from an original mid Sep-00 to mid Oct-00 and could slip again. No one is going to come out and upgrade the company until this date becomes cut in stone. But when it happens, YOU WILL WANT TO BE IN THIS STOCK!!! Plus, with this sick market, SBSE would have dropped to these levels even if they did not announce their problems. Now the only surprise should be favorable ones!!! I am holding all 18,000 shares!
I wish you would check into PMRY (Pomeroy Computer). PMRY is the 5th largest computer systems integrator in the country. Most of the large VARs are going belly up but PMRY is still running VERY strong. As the competitors fall, PMRY should be in a great position to pick up the "good" customers. In the past month or so the company has announced:
1) They now have direct relationship with Cisco: will inprove profit margins for a lot of their newest customers.
2) Landed the largest contract in company history with MCI/Worldcom ($80 million) with lots of potential add on Service business.
3) Reported another quarter of great results. Top growth 29%, EPS growth 22%.
The pros are not looking at this company correctly. They are afraid PMRY will lose out to customers going direct to vendors and cutting PMRY out. Perhaps this might be true if PMRY operated in NFL Football cities, but these guys OWN the second and third tier cities and thier prime customers of local/state governments and educational facilities are not likely to be prime "run the manufacturer" type folks. In the last quarter some of PMRY's new business came from Dell customers who went "Dell direct"!
Over the years PMRY has been very good to me. I got out in early 1999 as I feared the market would dump on the company due to Y2K fears. I was right! Started buying back in Dec-99 when the stock traded below $10 on tax loss selling. Have been buying ever since ($13.625,$16.25,$17.00 and $17.50). Will build this to an overweighted 10,000 shares soon.
When this stock hits, it is going to be VERY big!! Like buying INTT at $7 or COHU at $6.00 or SBSE at $10.
Look at the numbers .... EPS of over $2.10 and the stock sells for $15. Estimates for 2000 are around $2.50, give her a 15x PE and we have a $37.50 stock.
My best idea currently.
Regarding the current market ... as you know there are time when you make money and time that you give gains back. Now is the give back period. But with good stocks at reasonable valuations, a few months from now we will be back! The game doesn't end next month .... be happy you do not own any overvalued/hyped stocks.
Bob, you are happy???
Take care, but please do not bring me back to this long since dropped thread ... too many bad memories and very poor company guidance!
Chris ... |
