Scott, it appears that my positions and statements are still not exactly clear for you, so I apologize and will try and answer them as clearly as I can. Your questions and comments are quoted exactly and italicized.
So are the 'problems' you perceive company specific or not?
I thought I answered this clearly in my post #3798, when I said, "I don't think problems with KLIC are company specific - the whole semiconductor industry seems to be much weaker than the rest of the general market. I think the whole semiconductor industry is bracing for the fact that the top may be near."
If Klic's 'problems' are not company specific, then you would expect to see precisely the same degree of acute insider selling across the equipment spectrum....and you don't!
Again, I'm not sure how you arrived at this conclusion. I see heavy insider selling at ALL the semiconductor companies over the past few months. Applied Materials' recent insider activity won't be reported until June, and I expect that to also show heavy selling.
Once again, I believe that the entire semiconductor industry is bracing for the fact that the top may arrive within the next 6-9 months, and all industry insiders seem to be selling heavily. There is no company specific problem with KLIC.
The company officers you listed sold less than 5% of their total holdings (including options) of the company's stock they own...Prove me wrong.
I cannot prove you wrong, because I do not believe the public has access to information about individual's options grants. That's why I didn't comment on it on my last post. I would be very grateful if you could tell me where to get this kind of data. The only exception I know of is the S1 form filed with the SEC when a company is preparing to go public.
If what you say is true, then that would be somewhat reassuring. Can you prove yourself right?
Do you understand what a positive correlation means here? The more insider selling, the higher the stock price.
Hmmmmmm...I have no idea how to respond.
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I don't think we're going to get any further with our discussions. Basically, we have different styles of investing, and we're not going to convince each other. You place a lot of emphasis on analysts and tout earnings estimates, analyst buy ratings, S&P ratings, website recommendations, etc.
Over the years, I have found that kind of data to be very unreliable and unhelpful. Just my opinion. For example, you pointed out how Fidelity purchased a lot of KLIC in the Jan-March quarter. What you don't know is whether Fidelity dumped all those shares at $70 in April along with the other KLIC insiders. You won't know that until it's reported in July.
Finally, remember that I am just the messenger. I have no insights into the industry. I'm just reporting what I see the insiders doing, and I followed suit. I may be wrong, but I'll be in good company.
Well, good luck, Scott. You seem to have a lot of confidence in your investing system. Hope everything works out for you. |
