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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 681.92

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Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: Les H who wrote (51463)	5/21/2000 10:45:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Les, thanks (I rebookmarked this one). Now as to our discussion relative to liquidity, what really counts in term of liquidity is how much of that debt is in the public hand (the part of the debt which is in the Government hand is mostly the SS trust fund). If you go to: publicdebt.treas.gov you will see that on 10/97 the public held $3.789 Trillion, declining to $3.733 T on 10/98 and to $3.636 T on 10/99, as of 4/28/2000 this is further down to $3.541 T and as of 5/17/2000 it is further down to $3.516 T. Whether you want to call these "budget surpluses" or not, the fact remains, that the publicly held government debt was reduced by $153 B in the two fiscal years ending 10/99, and since then this was further reduced by another $120 B. This is money going back into the hands of the public, and thus looking for other investment opportunities, thus my thesis of excess liquidity from this source. Zeev

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