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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 690.310.0%Dec 26 4:00 PM EST
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To: KyrosL who wrote (51448)5/21/2000 11:19:00 AM
From: Techplayer  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Kyros, I totally agree with you on valuations. Many of the large caps on the Nasdaq still trade at extreme multiples. Mr. Fun pointed out on the CSCO thread the other day that in 1998, CSCO traded at about 1/2 of its present fiscal year multiple and even last year was at 75% of present levels.

The question is, will there be an oversold condition or absolute correction in valuations created in an election year? Gore has no platform if he can not point to the wealth effect. He will not be able to cite that creating change will disrupt a good thing. Along that line, it really did not make sense that Clinton's own people supposedly forced Greenspan to raise rates more than his customary 1/4, as was reported this weekend.

My bet, and perhaps a costly one, has been to pour money recently into beaten techs that are trading at PEGs of less than 1 times 2001 estimates. That has not included any of the large caps (with the exception of a few CSCO shares at 52.75). Of course, seasonality will play an effect on the techs as well since this period is usually the weakest for the sector. If we break the support lines, I will just dump out and wait, like the rest of the money out there right now.

thanks for your opinions.

tp
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