Chaz,
<< The movement toward wireless data will be accelerating in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 - so a strengthening of the data arm of the GSM installed base is worth doing >>
It appears to me that the data arm of GSM will be significantly strengthened by the move to GPRS which has not only been standardized by ETSI but is being overwhelmingly accepted by GSM operators, who are not just waiting to complete testing, but are placing large orders for network overlay rollouts.
All published feedback from GSM operators involved in GPRS testing and trials appears to be very positive and in fact many seem to be surprised at how quickly and how well GPRS is progressing.
Typical single user throughput is projected to increase relatively quickly from 28 kbps near term to 56 kbps (2001/2) and 112 kbps by late 2002. Even if this is delayed 6 months to a year, GSM customers will be moving over to UMTS for multimedia applications (or so everyone investing in spectrum licenses and 3G buildout is hoping). Terminals are the real trick here, but then again, terminals are always the trick.
In the interim, is there a business case for data speeds beyond 112 kbps on mobile devices even remotely like the ones we carry now and whose primary purpose is voice?
If so, their is (potentially) GSM/EDGE which is completing standardization now parallel to development of specifications for 'Release 2000' UMTS. If GSM/EDGE ever comes to market you basically have additional spectrum reuse or final phase network reuse for GSM. GSM/EDGE will be 3G in existing spectrum like TDMA/EDGE and IS-2000 release 0 purport to be.
<< Does HDR have anything to offer in that? >>
Your question is a good one.
My take is that HDR needs a carrier champion within the GSMA camp. The logical champion is Vodaphone, who is in the best position of any operator to assess the technical merits of HDR against alternative solutions. Given the state of the standards process, this champion is needed now, not tomorrow.
I think Tero is probably correct: "HDR is arriving too late" and is "a technology that could have succeeded if offered earlier", and I might add, appears to be viewed as being overly proprietary, in a world (GSMA/ETSI/3GPP) that functions well on a committee based standardization process.
I also think that GPRS as it is currently specified, is going to be around for a long time.
All FWIW, of course.
- Eric - |
