Interesting commentary re: CSCO/LU
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Will the Boom Byte Back?
By David Ignatius
Sunday, May 21, 2000; Page B07
The warning signs of technological doom are there, unmistakably. I wrote recently about the grim predictions of computer wizard Bill Joy of Sun Microsystems that the wondrous tools we're creating will eventually destroy us. And to underscore that danger, many of our workplaces found themselves struggling late recently to contain a diabolical new version of the "I LOVE YOU" virus; this one generates random subject lines as it knocks innocently on your e-mail door, only to ravage your computer files once it's inside.
This is "the century of danger," as Joy says. But what makes it so perilous is that it's also the century of opportunity--offering greater promise to cure disease, extend life and enrich human experience than any in history. That was the other theme of the Highlands Forum conference I attended this month, where Joy delivered his jeremiad to an audience of the nation's brightest technologists. I would not convey the true flavor of that remarkable meeting if I didn't describe in more detail some of the wonders that lie ahead. For that's the essence of the dilemma Joy poses. The hideous dangers he describes come wrapped inside the most exciting and beautiful container imaginable.
Three of the Highlands presentations were especially dazzling: The first was an explanation by Berkeley's Kris Pister of his research to create "smart dust," which are computers so tiny they could literally go anywhere. And when he says tiny, he means something that's about one-tenth the diameter of human hair.
These smart sensors--and their active counterparts, called "actuators"--are what's known as Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems, or "MEMS." And they will soon perform amazing tasks: They'll travel in our blood stream to detect and eradicate disease; they'll be painted on our cars, allowing them to change color and shape; they'll sense the presence of biological or chemical weapons and warn us to take counter-measures; they'll monitor every item in our refrigerator and tell us when something is stale.
Since the Pentagon sponsors the Highlands conference, some of the gizmos Pister described are inevitably spy gear: a tiny spy plane, less than a foot long, that can disseminate smart dust over a battlefield; synthetic insects that can hover like mosquitoes or tunnel like inchworms or clamber across obstacles like cockroaches. Nothing--no person, place, signal or conversation--will be out of reach of these micro-spies.
The second astonishing presentation came from David Bishop, the director of the Microstructure Physics Research Department at Lucent Technologies. He described his efforts to build optical switches that will use tiny mirrors to direct the pulses of light traveling along fiber-optic cables. Bishop says this new technology will work more efficiently than the electronic switches, known as "routers," that are currently the backbone of the Internet.
"It changes everything," Bishop said, and he may be right. Consider the potential impact on Cisco Systems--the dominant maker of routers and many people's idea of the ultimate blue-chip technology stock. Even after a recent downtick, its stock is still trading at a ridiculous 153 times its earnings--which means that investors are betting that Cisco and its stream of profits will be bubbling on for many, many years to come. But wait just a nanosecond, please. If Bishop is right, Cisco is toast. And Lucent, a supposed laggard that trades at a puny 48 times its earnings, is the new king of the hill. That's how fast the engine of discovery moves--it can transform today's superstar into tomorrow's also-ran.
The third mind-boggler was Philip Kuekes's discussion of the work he's doing at Hewlett Packard to create molecular-scale electronics, or "moletronics." The computers are so tiny and finely woven that they begin to approach the architecture of human brain cells. Kuekes's team has built wires that are just 10 atoms wide. And they've found a way to use a living molecule called rotaxane as a logic switch.
These nano-computers will be self-assembling, using thermodynamics, rather than the lithography that's used to create computer chips. Kuekes explained that, once built, the tiny grids will be attached to doctor computers, which will look for defects--and then to tutor computers, which will download the instructions to process digital information.
Kuekes imagines that these molecular computers will be as pervasive and powerful, and as cheap, as life itself. They will transform human existence in ways we can only begin now to imagine. And that's the seduction: Technology is creating tools that will allow us to conquer disease, live twice as long, master our world at last. The package is dazzling, but what's inside?
¸ 2000 The Washington Post Company |
