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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (80995)	5/21/2000 3:16:00 PM
From: cardcounter	Read Replies (1) of 132070

B, htown, 81,000th post greetings.. I've noticed that Houston has a major mosquito problem... after absorbing alot of mosquito repellant fumes and too many Texas Tea's (Long Island with tequila), I did the following analysis in search of a fair current market level: Geometric Average NASDAQ Compost Returns: 10.5 yr (1/01/90-5/19/00) = 17.7% 5.5 yr (1/95-5/19/00) = 31.3% 10 yr (1/89-1/98) = 16% 5 yr (1/94-12/98) = 16.4% My bearish market level : 2828 Applying the 10.5 yr geometric average return (17.7%) to the market at 1/99 (2208, I think this removes the speculative excesses of '99), 1.5 yr growth would bring us to a current level of 2828.81 which would represent another 20% drop from Friday's close. My bullish market level: 3353 Applying the 5.5 yr geometric average return (31.3%) to the market at 1/99 (2208, I think this removes the speculative excesses of '99), 1.5 yr growth would bring us to a current level of 3353 which would represent another 1% drop from Friday's close. Using the other averages: 10 yr (1/89-1/98) = 16% current level: 2766 5 yr (1/94-12/98) = 16.4% current level: 2781 BTW, its a good thing that Enron's stock isn't highly correlated with the lAstros..

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