The China Debate: Morality, Free Trade and National Interest
Summary
This week, the U.S. House of Representatives will vote on normalizing trade relations with China. The debate perfectly illustrates the tensions between morality and national interest, which pull powerfully on American foreign policy. While this tension has longstanding, historical roots it also creates great uncertainty in the world about the true direction of U.S. strategy.
Analysis
The sound and fury of the congressional debate over granting China permanent normal trade status belies its actual impact. The outcome appears to be a foregone conclusion and, at least immediately, passage would have little practical impact. But the debate provides a fascinating window into the paradoxes of American foreign policy and the intellectual forces shaping it.
Most foreign policies are shaped by dire necessity. Intellectual and ideological considerations are luxuries. But in the American case, the luxury of intellectualization can be afforded; the country's extraordinary power allows it to frame policy in terms other than simple necessity. This phenomenon drives the rest of the world nuts, because it leads to strange and unpredictable action; the war over Kosovo was one.
Nevertheless, foreign policy - at this moment in history - is not a matter of national survival for the United States. The debate over China revolves around three issues: human rights, free trade and national security. Each cuts to the heart of American political culture and, in fact, across ideological grounds. And this image is a snapshot of the American moral dilemma. ___________________________________________________________________ Would you like to see full text? stratfor.com ___________________________________________________________________
Begin with the idea of human rights: since its founding the United States has seen itself as more than just another regime. It has seen itself as a moral exercise, an attempt to create a regime founded not merely on national culture but universally applicable moral principles. The idea of "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness," under an equality derived from creation itself was not something to be applied only to Americans, but to all humans. Regimes that have not accepted this doctrine have been seen as morally defective and inferior.
But from the beginning - up through the present day - the United States has been torn between its vision of moral superiority and the practical necessity of survival among nations. George Washington suggested that avoiding foreign entanglements could preserve moral superiority; the problem was that foreign entanglements did not wish to avoid the United States.
All along, the United States has wrestled with the notion of cooperating with regimes it found morally offensive, regardless of ideology. During the Cold War in the early 1980s, for example, conservatives condemned the Soviet Union on moral grounds and sought to isolate - and even attack it - based on its role as an "evil empire." Liberals argued that the national interest, avoiding war, required cooperation and conciliation. At the exact same time, roles reversed on the question of South Africa, as liberals demanded punitive isolation and conservatives sought engagement. ______________________________________________ For more Weekly Analyses, see: stratfor.com _______________________________________________
Consistent inconsistency has proven more significant and resilient than any particular case. The fact is that human rights and national security are in constant competition within American foreign policy, dividing the nation on issue after issue, with different factions constantly changing sides. Inconsistency is what is important, not the various hypocrisies that grow from it.
The debate over China today is a mirror image of previous ones. Before Richard Nixon went to Beijing in 1972, paving the way for diplomatic recognition, liberals argued that the United States could not isolate a quarter of the world's population. On the heels of Mao's waves of repression, conservatives argued that his regime had to be quarantined. Today, liberal human rights activists and conservative moralists are in agreement on punishing Beijing, while other liberals and conservatives argue that reform will only flow from engagement.
This leads us to the second axis of American ideology. Arrayed against political morality is the economic morality built around the doctrine of free trade. Though never embedded in the Constitution, free trade has a similar intellectual heritage in English liberalism, growing from the idea that the pursuit of happiness means the pursuit of property - unlimited by political intrusion - as the best way to guarantee individual happiness and national tranquility. Today it has emerged as a broader doctrine in which free trade promises not only increased prosperity but also eliminates the causes of war. Even more radically, the argument is made that free trade can reform regimes that violate human rights, like China's. _______________________________________________ For more on China, see: stratfor.com _______________________________________________
This doctrine is dogma among the American political elite. George W. Bush and Al Gore both believe it, as do all living former Presidents. Now, there is certainly a strong element of self- interest in the elite's belief; many of them make a great deal of money from foreign trade and, in particular, from trading with China. Regardless, the philosophy behind the economic proposition is the same.
The moral opposition to free trade with China is equally fascinating. On the one side there are unreconstructed anti- Communists who see China as being engaged in a massive strategy to gain superiority over the United States, indeed with the economic help of the United States. Labor unions see China threatening their economic interests with cheap exports. Pat Buchanan and Richard Gephardt are as allied as Gore and Bush.
And so different understandings of what is right collide - not just in China but around the world. Liberals, for example, tend to believe in multiculturalism, not only in the U.S. but globally; they then turn around and condemn nations from China to Saudi Arabia for engaging in cultures that truly differ from the American model. Conservatives with links to financial interests in China raise warnings about China's intentions around the world - but happily do business with Chinese economic interests
All of this is further compounded by one more factor: the concept of national interest. Today, there is deep confusion over this notion. From the beginning, it was not clear whether the national interest was in spreading influence throughout the world or preserving the physical security of the United States. Sometimes these went hand in hand. At other times, there were bitter choices to be made. The concept of national interest and national security has confused the United States like few other nations.
This confusion only deepens when the notion of national interest collides with the doctrines of human rights and free trade. Does free trade with China enhance or reduce national interests? Is the national interest bound up with human rights or is it independent of it? What if pursuing human rights in China undermines the national interest? What national interest can be undermined if the moral principles of the regime are protected?
In time of crisis, when survival itself is at risk, these abstract concepts fall to the wayside. When the chips are down, the United States has always done what it needs to do in order to survive and enhance its power. Crisis clarifies intent.
The problem occurs when, as today, there is no crisis, no fundamental threat to American prosperity or national security. It is at this point that the incredibly complex fault lines of U.S. foreign policy emerge. Paradoxically, this is not much of a threat. It is a luxury the United States can afford to indulge.
But the confrontation matters a great deal to the countries on the receiving end of this debate. Incoherence in U.S. foreign policy creates uncertainty in the world. This mattered little in, say, 1804, when U.S. foreign policy had little impact. In 2000, however, its effect on the world is massive.
To be certain, China is a bit of a special case. It is as self- absorbed as the United States and its dependence on this particular piece of legislation is minimal. China is far more interested in its internal power struggles than it is in the World Trade Organization, regardless of what its leadership claims.
Nevertheless, as an empirical matter, the United States' inherent inability to formulate an intellectually coherent foreign policy creates unease as the world observes the estrangement of American intellect and American power. _______________________________________________ Would you like to know more about Asia? Visit stratfor.com _______________________________________________
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