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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (13860)5/22/2000 1:16:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans  Read Replies (3) of 15132
 
Justa

I expect to see signs of slowing (moderation) in the economy sometime soon. This may be encouraging to the Fed. The Fed. could well go 25 basis points and move to neutral in June. This possibility has not been entertained by the market. Market seems to be pricing in 50 basis points and retention of the "bias."

Very good analysis. I too also see signs of a slowdown here. The prefabricated housing market has fallen, as reported by the WSJ, 20% this year-so what does this indicate? That the people who purchase these homes, most with marginal incomes, are having trouble financing them. This is where a slowdown usually appears first.

Also keep an eye on the auto sector.

At some point I feel the Fed will go on hold with the increases if they don't and keep raising rates agressively by 1/2 point increments they will throw the economy into a recession which is NOT what they want.
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