Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Scumbria who wrote (111857)	5/22/2000 3:19:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (2) of 1570078

Scumbria, RE:"I don't see how that can happen when the Fed cuts the legs out of every rally" The problem is that everyone wants their cake and eat it too. The market runs up, a wealth effect occurs and everyone goes out chasing goods and runs prices. The economy overheats. The FED, run by Keynesians have to raise rates to slow it down. The only way to really get ahead and away from being sucked down with the crowd is to have your money in things that don't participate in the inevitable cycles that drag down the crowd. Basically you have to be making it or preserving it while the crowd is losing it. An example of this is your own pet peeve, silicon valley real estate. So a prospective buyer makes good money in tech bull market and then goes out to buy a house only to discover he's no better off because lke people have driven up the prices right along with the best of the market. So the FED comes in and raises rates and the RE market cools off. "Great", says the buyer only to find out the stock market tanked too. So basically you need to be better than the crowd mentality to get ahead. From the looks of your posts, it appears you are much better off long AMD...I suspect you will be getting ahead. Jim PS...as far as blame, I tend to blame the people, they get what they vote for. Then cry when it isn't easy. The fed has been raising rates for nearly a year. We've had 6 consecutive rate hikes. No one should be surprised that the market is reacting to this. The real sticker is that market momentum was so strong it ran up in the face of it until one day the markets got a reality check...right about the day (this likely sealed Gores fate in the fall as well)that the DOJ and Reno stuck it to Microsoft and it became evident that the Lawyers were crashing the Silicon valley party. Been downhill ever since. Often one can point to a trigger mechanism and that appears to be it. The current, trial lawyer administration should be proud....you should be happy. Justice is being served. You should not be allowed to get ahead to fast. This is the liberal way. <G> Jim

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