Aus, as far as I can see, right now we have reached a "local" bottom, we must get above $64, first to turn "neutral", and above $73 to turn bullish. Since right now I "see" a rally going to just north of 3800 on the Naz followed by a late June relapse to about 3400, I believe that on this run we will possibly stall in the $64 to $73 area. I have to do more detailed work (and wait a day or two to see the "power" behind the next move up). IMHO, this is at least a "tradeable rally, but it could put in place the foundation for a powerful summer rally into elections. If that is what is "served", I "see" a good chance of reaching the $110 area. Statistical TA such as Larry's work will most probably have other target points.
As far as Larry's comment on SMH, it is a "tracking" security (like the QQQ) that you can buy (Merril Lynch just started it) to follow the semiconductors industry, it contains a weighed amount of the 20 semi stocks (including SNDK at, I believe a small weighin of 3%). What Larry was referring to is 19 out of the 20 SMH components were down, thus he was trying to imply that nothing is wrong with SNDK, but something may not be Kosher with the Market, or at least the semi sector.
Zeev |
