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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Robert Rose who wrote (480)	5/22/2000 7:38:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) of 57684

Ok: when should you have lightened up and where would you be at if you did? And be honest with yourself: how much would you have lost getting out early, and gained by being out in the drop, and then when would you get back in? That's 3 decisions instead of one. I was up 21x last year and 80x from 10/9/1998 until 4/3/00. My compounding return was 91% per year for the 13 years until April. I have gone back and ran numbers with the idea that I would use peg ratio's as my indicatotions for the above maneuvers, and sell and buy based on those measures.(someone said here that peg's are a "new economy" creation, and they may be defined that way but going back forever, companies tend to sell at or above a peg of 1 and leaders at 2.)The leaders shot by peg's of 2 in early Decemnber, so I would have sold in early Dec, but I would have bought back at about nasdaq 3700. By doing this I would be almost exactly where I am now, at Dec 6 levels. FWIW, I am down about 50% from my peak. But this still puts me at more than 400% higher than 1 year ago. The point is that we need to see whether a 100% new economy allocation is wrong or not. Aren't we still far better off for having been aggressive?

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