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I got your PM, I had to respond very soon and I had this reply in my head since last night and these level jolted out but unfortunately I did not get my chance to write however as the tradtion goes right in the middle of carnage I was able to stay with my positions reiterate them on this thread and came with a logical reasoning as to why this market may see a reversal from a test of 1368 low lower than 1382 but higher than my 1382 and above 1402 more towards 1418, the time I was writing my post it looked so bleak and far that NDX will reverse so strongly afterall break of core would be a disaster for this market not that I am not looking at that I still think that one cannot sway and dilly dally when major support like 1382 is under test, it would be counter productive and zeroing my entrie strategy if I write off 1382 and go with what was most likely a really major panic and manic break for what it is worth not for making any money or losing it the thing is that when it mattered like 27th of Oct 97 8th of oct 98 or 11/30 or 4/14 I did not duck, I was happy that my cable did not work but my numerice did come on line, I could have been wrong and still chances are bright for a panic sell off I think htat 1382 should hold this level is like 900 to 990 level on SPX from that 750 move since 1997.. however double close below it and we are in different terrtitory, will close my long calls at minus 70% premiums and try to get in at more appropriate level, for me it is not about falling knife but about when to pick up a bottom. Let me be very honest, it was first time I did not trigger a buy when AAPL and CSCO were at 86/12 and 50 11/16 I just did not pull the trigger, but feel good to admit that fear of break, for me to get into that fear could have two meanings one this is going to be real this time or pessimism at its worst, I think former is much more a better interpretation of my lack of decision today but who cares as far one has the moral courage to take and admit a bias, I think that will keep this thread alive otherwise we better shut up of we cannot come out on a day like today.. what a day and what a move.. for we short term historians of the markets one hell of a day in terms of rebound as the fall looked too real the CSCO SUNW EMC were through the supports like knife through butter the only thing that saved me from a wrong move was that low of 11/30 2966 low of NDX, had I not been a student of short term market histroy I would have tempted to pull the trigger on short side.. This is the story of this thread we have been right on the money although since 3600 level when that DOW Comp covergence has been brought to more reasonable levels this market is teasing eveyone, don't forget that we have rarely seen a test of 200 days MA and BKX is rather making an attempt to move higher we do have the possibility of false break on a bad short term news but markets don't give away if earnings are good and banking is strong/// |
