WDC/Sandisk Corporation Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 157.75

+0.4%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: TREND1 who wrote (11364)	5/22/2000 9:18:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) of 60323

Larry Dudash: Dealing with probability distributions implies there is a range of probabilities which must be considered in an event occurring. So, to say here say that SNDK is a "BUY" at 51 5/16, which reads to me as oh-so-precise (the 5/16)--that is only part of the story,imo. To me it's actually about the quotes in "BUY" (and this is implied in you post), because each and every SNDK price has a probability associated with it (I would assume) when the computer runs its comparisons. So perhaps (not knowing the model or what exactly the probabilities measure) SNDK would be a buy at 51 5/16 with .60 (60%) likelihood of something good happening, maybe even a better buy at 49 with .7 (70% chance of a favorable outcome). It's about how one determines what probability number one will use for a "BUY". Somebody might consider SNDK a "BUY" only if the associated probability of a favorable event occurring (the stock rising) is .7 or .8 or maybe would want .9. But without having the probability associated with the number 51 5/16, only the HAL's owner knows. Depending on how the program is written it could be .4 (less than 50/50 chance of the favorable event occurring, but still be better (higher probability) than any of the other 19 possible stocks. Another issue for me is whether or not it is important or relevant to measure SNDK against a basket of 19 other stocks to determine if SNDK is a buy. It's only a relative buy then imo. But you presumably have been very successful using you method(s), and over a long period of time too, so that certainly gives me pause. (Aside: I'd prefer it if you were to respond to me, please stick to what you've said and don't do it today! I have a problem with people who give their word and then break it.) Paul Senior

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