Freeus, wrt your second response: their reasons to get out were clear and then you mentioned "over valuation and interest rate increases" that you recall having made the most impression upon your recall.
Well, there is where I have to confess to a struggle with that being "actionable/motivational get out advice."
Overvaluation...as compared to what? Acc'd to whom? What time period are we talking? Is everything overvalued? What happens when overvaluation occurs? How long can overvaluation be observed before something is done about it?
Can you see the ambiguity, Freeus?
For about 3 years now, we've heard that the market is:
"overvalued by historical P/E ratio standards,"
" by historical growth standards,"
" by 1929 standards,"
" by 1990 standards,"
" by 1964-68 standards," etc.
This is not NEW news! Sooooo, what kind of overevaluation "bell rang" in Feb that was supposed to make the reader/subscriber say ..."Oh THAT over-valuation, Yes, YES! You're right, Mr. Advisor. I get it now. I'll sell all first thing in the AM...at the market, not limit orders. Tax consequences, long range planning, doctor's appointments, hairdresser appts, carpool arrangements all be damned..I'm a gonna sell!!!"
See, Freeus, that isn't logical, clear, nor does it show any consideration let alone "guidance/action plan" for individual needs, goals, and tax planning, who are sitting there reading this stuff.
Now, may I share my thoughts on the "interest rate increases" alert you were provided?
Current biz news reports' yammer is full of "The May increase was the 6th increase in the last 11 months by the FR" OooooooooooKAY...Number 6 huh?
Well, lemme see, that must mean that there were either 4 or 5 before "Advice to get out in February by said advisory service" utterance, yes? How come said advice and "overvaluation" from the first 4 didn't cause a sell-off?
In point of fact, the prior FR interest rate increase was the basis for one hellacious 200+ pt rally just immediately upon that pronouncement. And before that, there used to be a 3 hikes and a stumble [of the overall stockmarket]"rule" in effect before that same Fateful, generic, ambiguous "interest rates are increasing" so sell and get out...or at least buy protective puts "advisory."
I'm sorry, Freeus, but I just don't see any empowering logic in what you have related that made it through your particular psyche/make-up. Nor do I believe MANY others heard the bell ring at the top either. And you brought it up yourself, as to "why" didn't you heed it?
May I invite you to explore with me some specifics, maybe even some "whys" that might make it "through?"
And I'll attempt to share why I heard the "bell" at the top of Bre-X, deal?
Comments?
Regards,
O/49r |
