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To: Mark Bracey who wrote (4931)5/23/2000 2:43:00 AM
From: Kashish King   of 5102
 
I consider myself to be fairly pragmatic so let's revisit what I did not say. What I did not say a few years ago was that software companies would throw out working software to start over in Java. My prediction was that the majority of new development would be in Java within a few years. That's precisely what happened, only it's bigger than I thought.

What also happened was that C++ took over for C and tools like Veebee started filling in for C++ with the adoption of Microsoft's Active Xcrement technology. A visit to the bookstore tells the tale -- really a nice metric for what's really being used out there. On the client side, my vision for Java was sub-optimal. I misjudged the ability of Java Script to fill in that niche, albeit a simple scripting language. No doubt about that: Java fizzled on the client.

I should also point out that not that many monolithic applications are being built in any language these days. Instead, most large applications are distributed over HTTP and IIOP wires. Oracle is going full-steam with JDeveloper, IBM is going gangbusters with Websphere and companies like BEA Systems are betting the farm on Java, and winning.

Although not exactly as I envisioned it, Java has in fact dominated the development scene, big-time. Take a look at the volume and depth of Java software on the market, not to mention row after row of Java books in your local bookstore for the last two years. There will be half a rack of Veebee books, one full rack or more of Java stuff and one old Delphi book that has been there for three years. Critics will point to the software shelves at Fry's and ask: where's the coffee? Again, stand-alone applications are still better off in C++ complied natively. I'll give you that.

Java is huge. It dwarfs Veebee and doesn't have Veebee's 10 year headstart. Delphi is a knat relative to Java. I can't think of any reasonable conclusion other than I was dead on the money about Java but wrong on the actual manifestation of the technology.

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