<Ok: when should you have lightened up and where would you be at if you did? And be honest with yourself: how much would you have
lost getting out early, and gained by being out in the drop, and then when would you get back in? That's 3 decisions instead of one.>
To me, your questions are moot as I change my investment strategy. Nevertheless, I will try to answer.
As you remember, I cashed in some of my winnings in Dec by purchasing my NW home. My thinking then was, "If anyone can make this kind of money over the 4 trading days prior to xmas (remember cmrc?), it HAS to be some kind of top. So I sold enough losers (primarily for tax reasons) to purchase the place for cash.
Then I started selling in earnest after Jan 1 to lock in what I still perceived as a top (remember qcom??). By Feb I was 85% cash, as I recall.
But then the new economy stocks just kept rising (remember cra and the bios?), so I admitted my "mistake" and reinvested to 10% on margin by mid March. (BIG MISTAKE!!)
I sold on the way down and am now 20% invested (up from 15%). My portfolio is down about 40% from its high, but after paying 50% ST capital gains to Uncle Sam and the Golden State for 1999, I am down 66% from my 2000 high.
OUCH!!!!!!!!!!
So I HAVE to find a strategy that reduces this double whammy: a very high beta risk and an enormous tax burden combo.
And I've outlined what my new strategy is:
Message 13745049
And I have no regrets walking away from my former strategy.
The bubble was an incredible party, and I was right there the whole time, with all the other merrymakers. But I believe the party is winding down. And while the merriment may continue, it will never be as wild and wooly as it was. So I'm saying No to the barman in preparation for the ride home.
That's how life works. Parties come to an end.
So as I don my jacket, I just thank my lucky stars I still have some mighty dandy party favors to stuff in my pockets.
ps. Congrats on the fab record. :) |
