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To: SecularBull who wrote (7819)	5/23/2000 11:39:00 AM
From: JohnG	of 8096

To: Ruffian who wrote (72194) From: JohnG Tuesday, May 23, 2000 11:25 AM ET Reply # of 72200 Ruff. QCOM Chipset shipments analysis. 1) Thru 9/30/2000 from Ruf's 10K exerpt---65MM 2) From 4/18/2000 Conf Call-Q1, 2000 (ending 12/31/99)-14.5MM 3) From 4/18/2000 Conf call--Q2, 2000 (ending 3/31/2000)--11.2MM 4) From 5/23/2000 QCOM announcement, Cumulatic\ve total shipments to date---100Mm 5) Thus, shipments from 3/31/2000 through 5/23/2000 must be (100 -65 -14.5 -11.2)=9.3MM 6) From 4/18/2000 Q had projected shipments in Q3 to be more than 14.5MM Thus Q's ship rates are above target because in 1.74 months they have shipped 9.3MM or 5.34MM per month. If this rate continues, they could ship 16.0MM chipsets in Q3. This ammounts to shipping 16% of all the CDMA chipsets ever shipped in just one quarter, and should produce blow out earnings unles there is some offset we know nothing about. At this point, I would suggest taking a look at July and Oct calls before the market tumbles to the reality of this announcement. JohnG

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