5/23----------------NEW INVESTORS---------------------
WELCOME TO A BEAR MARKET.
ALMOST ALL STOCKS ARE TROUBLED IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH HIGH P/E's AND NO EARNINGS. UNLESS YOU WERE SHREWED ENOUGH TO BUY INTO "OLD ECONOMY" STOCKS IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY, YOU HAVE BEEN HIT BY THIS WAVE OF SELLING.
HOWEVER, THE LONG TERM INVESTOR MADE ALMOST NOTHING IN THE PAPERS, AIRLINES, ETC. OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS, WHEREAS NEW ECONOMY STOCKS HAVE HAD AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS, SPECTACULAR UPTREND. DON'T FORGET THAT COII IS UP AN ASTOUNDING 800+% OVER THE LAST YEAR!!!!!
STOCKS LIKE COII WILL EXPERIENCE COMPRESSION BY THIS TYPE OF FEARFUL SELLING. ONCE THE FED SIGNALS THAT IT IS DONE RAISING RATES, THE BEST NEW ECONOMY STOCKS, LIKE COII WILL BE OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN.
MY GUESS: WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BOTTOM THAN THE TOP AND SELLING AT THIS POINT HAS A HIGHER RISK THAN REWARD. HOWEVER, THIS BOTTOM COULD LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE SUMMER AND COII COULD DROP MORE BEFORE RALLYING ON GOOD NEWS AND EVEN A TAD OF MARKET OPTIMISM.
The Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the "Annual Meeting") of Computerized Thermal Imaging, Inc. will be held in the Golden Gate "C" Room of the Marriott Hotel Downtown, 55 Fourth Street, San Francisco, CA 94103 on June 27, 2000 at 2 P.M. PST.
It should be a great evening. Meet all of your old friends here on the board--see what everyone actully looks like! Learn more about this great company's future. I will be there, of course.
COII IS UP ABOUT 900% IN THE PAST YEAR. NOW IT HAS SETTLED INTO A TRADING RANGE BETWEEN 8-9. THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY. EACH WEEK THAT PASSES BRINGS US CLOSER TO NEWS THAT WILL CAUSE US TO ROCKET HIGHER. IF YOU WANT MORE SHARES DOLLAR COST AVERAGE IN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 MONTHS. AFTER THAT, THE PRICE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.
MY GUESS ABOUT THE PIPELINE:
module 2 was sent back to coii for "minor" revisions.
modules 3 is in!
4 going in very soon, 1 month?
foreign sales coming right up
nasdaq approval within 1-2 months
these are just my guesses--i could be right or wrong
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COII (CTI) is the leader in the emerging field of thermal medical imaging.
They will be first to market with a computerized thermal imaging system to be used inititally as an adjunct to mammography. They have at least a one year head start on all competitors. Orders from foreign countries are already being taken(we assume)and they have plenty of
funding for a fast and furious national roll-out.
CTI will help stop the breast cancer epidemic. Then, they will become major players in the diagnosis of back/neck
pain(work injuries), followed by many other potential areas such as dermatology, cardioloigy, etc.
Their breast cancer detection system should be approved by summer/fall 2000.
Use these links to help you in your study of COII.
1. Go to the Silicon Investor "research" thread and read the last 5-15 posts, at least.
Subject 21613
2. Go to the company website and study it--especially the thermal images of cancer vs. normal tissue..see news release from Feb. for images:
cti-net.com
3. Go to the yahoo COII "profile"
biz.yahoo.com
4. CTI may eventually replace mammography as the screening of choice for breast cancer--then it could be back/neck
pain, melanoma, etc.
CTI's EARNING POTENTIAL (CONSERVATIVE)?
Let's assume that 1-2 years after approval:
300 imaging centers X 200,000-400,000 net/system = 60M net
note: this is conservative. it is possible they could make FAR more per system. think about it: they can process 4-6 ladies per hour. each breast will NET around $30, with most women having both done for total of $60 per exam.
$50 x 4/hour x 8 hr. day x 6 days/week x 50 weeks/yr. =
NET of 480,000 per year.
Then assume they sell sell 200 systems x 250,000 net = 50M NET ONE YEAR AFTER APPROVAL = $110M
ASSUME 110M SHARES OUTSTANDING GIVES US $1/SHARE
So if we assume that they have a p/e of 50 during the first couple years (this would drop to 25 after 1-2 years) it would give a stock price of:
$50 with a 50 p/e
My one year price projection after approval is $50
My 2-3 year projection is $100
My 5+ year prjection is $200
These are all back of the envelope estimates and have no guidance from the company. I will update these estimates as
time progresses. If anyone has any suggestions, please let me know. Please realize that all of these computations are
very conservative.
CTI will have a great run for at least 2-3 years. The long term investor wins with CTI.
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