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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: marc ultra who wrote (13887)5/23/2000 4:01:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
David?s Market Augury (or, confessions of a truly rank amateur):

Again, the Naz danced around the benchmark low of April 14 (3221). Volume was low to moderate. That is, the hoards are not stampeding for the exits and there are enough buyers at these levels to provide somewhat of a base. Does this signal a 'true' test--i.e., one that makes it unlikely for more downside and very likely for a move back up?

Nope. For the complete story, you have to read the entrails. I.e., the market internals including advance/decline, up/down vol/, new highs/new lows. These have not changed over this sell-off and continue 'say' that there simply are too many people sitting on the sidelines.

They are not selling (hence, low volume). They may be nervous and hoping for some 'sign' to jump one way or the other. A sign could be an exogenous event. Or, a sign could be that the market just hovers around this level for a while longer and they begin to feel ?safe? again. Or, there could be something that sets them into a panic and a greater sell-off could ensue.

To really test the lows, we need to see the side-liners beginning to step up to the plate in greater number and pick off some of the putative 'bargains.' We need to see the market continue to hover in this area but with more up volume, for example.

Conclusion: I will not buy QQQ (or related) until I see the guts line up.

Ciao,
David Todtman
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