Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Scumbria who wrote (112196)	5/23/2000 5:39:00 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) of 1570341

Scumbria re <<Semiconductor valuations are based largely on the knowledge that sales are (were) expected to explode during the next two years. Forward rather than backward P/E.>> Not exactly. Semi's continue to be looked at as a cyclical and everyone is trying to guess the peak. For the equipment, the BTB dropped from 1.42 to 1.40 ( I think these are the numbers but the point is it was a minor reduction). Now 40% quarter over quarter is very good, but people maybe thinking that it signals the top. The point is the market is trying to stay one step ahead of what you were saying. They are looking at the second derivative and not the first derivative. If the semi's are no longer as cyclical (this my guess) then all semi's are undervalued. But if the BTB numbers are indicative of past history, we are heading much, much lower. Re <<With venture capital money drying up, this could have a serious impact on semiconductor sales going out into the future. Don't underestimate the damage that AG is doing to the industry infrastructure.>> Oh please! Greenspan is doing what his job is and that is to direct the economy to cool and sustain as oppose to overheat and crash. I do think that the reduction in people's stock portfolio will do just that :) I am hoping to see a serious climax in selling so I can get back in 100% margined and make a killing. Of course it is needless to say that it never works out the way you plan it. Mani

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