Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 226.08

+1.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (35333)	5/23/2000 6:58:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (4) of 70976

Did someone say something about a wealth effect?!?! Cary, As I am sure you know, I am very Bullish on AMAT and the sector as a whole. Not a blind Bull however. The current downturn has more to do with interest rates and fears of future fed increases than anything else. Any talk of a downturn in the semis is very premature IMHO. We are seeing shortages in DRAM, Flash, MPU's, TFT's and many more areas. As you well know, making a semiconductor is not akin to turning on a faucet- there is a lag between the decision to build/add capacity, and the resulting supply it creates. Much of the equipment needed to regain equilibrium in these areas has not even been ordered yet. And we still have not seen the first real 300mm chips shipped yet; this will be the next real catalyst for the sector. There is also the unkown....how many mp3 players will be shipped, along with upgrades.....and will the next generation of mp3 players have more memory than my desktop? I sure could use a half Gig in my Rio.....my desktop would perform probably pretty much the same. Also, only about 5% of the servers are in place for the internet of 2005, according to some calculations(Tony Viola??). The world is about to change as we know it. There have been many scary moments over the past decade when selling out of the techs seemed to make sense........this is precisely the time it has made sense to be buying the Tech Leaders. I believe we are witnessing one of those moments, though there is no argument that we are closer to a top than we were a year ago for the sector:-) Regards, Brian(still fully invested.....am I still the only one?)

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