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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners
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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (517)5/23/2000 7:16:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle  Read Replies (1) of 57684
 
This is exactly when the bottom would be in in the past.

1. Leadership is all down more than 35% and at lows.
2. Leadership selling at about 1 to 1.5x forward growth rates.
3. Smaller techs have already been bludgeoned and are holding above lows

4. Put call ratio is highest in 16 months
5. Most think the rebound is months off, if there is one.
6. The Fed will most certainly not need to do more than 1 more point as the market has been crushed and growth is slowing. The rebound IS usually well before the fed is done.

The only thing that is missing that I can think of is a panic selling bottom, which looks improbable, and days where bad news no longer has an effect, ie, poor economic/earnings news causes nothing to happen, since all the sellers are out.

Edit: the previous postv points to what is happening in the re market too. It is certainly happening here in Redmond, Wa. Housing prices are dropping and the market is drying up. Not bad yet, but more than just the start of it.
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