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Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (57)	5/9/1997 10:37:00 PM
From: Q.	of 167

Today' survey still shows less than 30% bulls, which is quite a low level. Historically it is possible, but improbable, to have a significant decline when sentiment is so bearish. Based on this recent rally, I think the 12 week rule needs to be whichever comes first: 12 weeks or a bullish sentiment of < 35%. The 12 week rule was optimized using backtesting to give the best results for the corrections of 87 and 96, but now with a third (and quicker) correction to test the method, it's clear my formula needed a change to permit one to return to a fully invested posture more rapidly if sentiment turned bearish as quickly as it did last month.

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