Hi Walt!
I will have to disagree with most of what you said...
>Yep, still like Greenspan. He is doing his job...removing
liquidity so that people don't get carried away with debt
(including margin debt)
Greenspan is removing the liquidity HE injected in the
market ahead of Y2K and following the 98 Asia crisis.
He is trying to undo the monster he created!
>If they had lots of debt and the market crashed...
I mean REALLY crashed, not like the last few months,
then people would be ruined.
The market has really crashed!!! Did you know the Nasdaq
never ever corrected by the amount it has now corrected?
(the previous record was a 35% drop in 87... we're nearing
40%). As I don't have to tell you where the "small"
investor has his money parked (mostly in nasdaq stocks), it
is easy to conclude that people HAVE been ruined already.
>The boom-bust cycle is intact
If the market value is in any way correlated to the
health of the economy, you can be sure the boom-bust
cycle is intact NOW!. Really, there was no bust in sight;
I'm not so sure about it now... that's a lot of wealth
that has vanished in 2 months, that won't go towards
buying consumer goods or paying taxes to the government.
I would not be surprised if consumer spending came to
a screeching halt. Concerning the existence of a boom
bust cycle: this would be true if the forces that shaped
the cycle were the same through time. However, new
technologies constantly change the dynamics of the system
and because of that, there is no basis to make a claim
for the repeatability of such a cycle, or even
the existence of a cycle! The forces that
now shape economic growth are widely different from the
ones that were present 20, 40 or 80 years ago. There is
no reason why economic growth could not continue without
interuption for decades given the right set of underlying
circumstances. I just think that stating that a downturn is
imminent because we've had growth for "too long",
and a downturn should've occured on the basis of what we
know from previous up-downswings is a fallacy.
>and it is his job to smooth out the highs and lows
No smoothing here... crazy run-up followed by a
crazy downturn. Has never been worse for the Nasdaq!
>I have owned DFXI for a long time...
but the NEXT few years will be the most rewarding.
I held DFXI for a 25 bagger before
selling at 19US$ (back in at 28$). Market
cap is now 375mil. Another 25 bagger would put us at a
market cap of 9.375 billion. Doubtful: the bigger you get
the tougher it is to grow.
>The main thing is to invest in companies that know their
business, have great products AND GREAT MANAGEMENT, and the
rest will take care of itself, whether interest rates go
up, come down, or stay steady
I AGREE!!! Unless you have to sell! (but I don't).
Trilobyte.
p.s. I'm not upset with YOU... just upset by Greenspan
and what I consider very misguided, mostly reactionary
policies. |
