We are at 1382 on SPM, we practically hit that level, this is the support that has held so far very well, the reason for last night last hour fall was SOX and PSE both gave up, the core stocks sold heavy, however the only grace left was that market did not go through that 1382 support..the little I know new lows on this move have not been taken out as far SP00M is concerned..
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I would do concede that NDX poses entirely a different sort of problem that of a move that can break the 3000 and go through to 2500, that means we will see indiscriminate selling in CSCO MSFT INTC SUNW and SOX sector much as Ralph would like to see this evolving Comp that is much more a broader index shows me that 2800-2890 may be an area that would be difficult terrain.
We have now 2966 the 11/30 low on NDX to be taken out for that ugly scenerio for techs to evolve and 1382 so that we test 1350 on SPM and Comp 2800-2890 band.
The way it looks is what we have been saying when Comp was at 5000 is now recognised by the market and hence the carnage, ''rising interest rates will hurt discounted models much worst than traditional stocks'', however the market psychology is bizzare and convulated at best when interest rates were being raised between 28th feb to 20th Mar 2000 market was beating BKX and DOW to 630 and 9500 levels, I think that layers of fat on Comp individual issues have been taken off, it was the time in March to get into bkx and DOW and may be I am little way out by few weeks but I am sure that this trend is unmaintainable, but it is now momentum selling and I think that best way is to buy some out of the money calls as far out as Oct to Jan on some leading stocks like CSCO MSFT INTC even SDLI LSI and others as Tim Lamb has highlighted.. but if we hold SP00M 1382 and rebound now and take out 1408.. a tall order but doable.. |
