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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: DownSouth who wrote (25039)5/24/2000 7:23:00 AM
From: Heeren Pathak  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
DownSouth,

Gigabit ethernet is a threat to FC for the very reasons that FC has not crossed the chasm. That is, an ill-defined FC standard has resulted in non-interoperable solutions from the FC switch vendors.

Here is an example of the ill winds blowing for FC:

I have to agree with you that FC will be challenged and may be in trouble. I really doubt any real Gorillas will emerge here, but there will probably be some interesting simians that end up making a lot of noise.

The biggest argument for FC is that it lets you go faster than Ethernet. If you go back in time, there have been a number of "breakthrough" technologies that were going to allow LANs to go past the limitations of Ethernet. A simple list of these are: Token Ring, FDDI, ATM, etc. In all these cases, someone was able to come up with a newer version of Ethernet that boosted the speed limit. We have seen Ethernet go from 1 Mbs to 10 Mbs to 100 Mbs to 1 Gbs to now 10Gbs. This rate boost has been fast enough to keep up with the types of applications needed in a LAN environment. Even in a SANs environment, at using Gigabit Ethernet will put the bottleneck in the disk drives and I/O system of the computers. Not the network.

I personally am very reluctant to invest in any non-Ethernet based technology. The Ethernet vs. the world story in networking seems to parallel the CISC vs. RISC argument in microprocessors. In the end, CISC won out because technology matured fast enough to keep ahead of real world applications. Remember, the software is ALWAYS behind the hardware by at least a year or so.

Heeren
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