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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp

SFTBY 72.38

+2.8%

3:58 PM EST

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To: Edwin S. Fujinaka who wrote (5133)	5/24/2000 10:06:00 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 6019

Hi Edwin, I am only working out China matters for 9984 based on probabilities and statistics: 95% of new businesses eventually fail, many within 3 years; and I estimate 85% of sino-foreign ventures (mostly not startups, but subsidiary efforts of strong companies with existing products, import market share, and proven management teams) make no money. So, if I remember my engineering statistics (skipped all the classes, recitation periods and started studying for the mid-term 2 weeks before the event) 0.75% of 9984's $300 mm will ever see the light of the Son. And if that 0.75% increases in value 100 fold, we get to almost breakeven, less 25% loss and time value of money. On top of it all, I know of fraudulent efforts by seemingly respectable folks. Do not like those odds.

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