Sonki: Our difference is that you are in love with MSFT, while I try to keep cool, though we share a similar long term perspective with it.
Infatuation brings pain, a humble experience I'd choose not to forget.
The NT story has been known to the market for sometime now. I thought that was why MSFT went up. I "initiated the coverage of MSFT with a buy rating" at 118 before splitting (i.e. @~59) just about a year ago ( do I make you proud?). I was pretty impressed when it got to 123 and turned cautious as I realized that its market cap was almost 150B(second only to GE) and '97 PE(ending June) at 54. I felt that the MSFT concept was still evolving. And I am not very sure if this economy can support it (as I argued earlier). For now, I don't see too much hidden value in it though I keep a target price at 360 assuming everthing goes well (DOW 20000!). But again, I wouldn't let my long term euphoria take complete control. I have hedged all positions with 105 July calls (MSQGA). If they get called away, well, you can tell me "I told you so" then, but again, there is always another good idea to play with, and, who know, I might have made good use of the buying power.
I have used NT 3.X and NT4.0 for workstation. I was told by software engineers that a good operating system is never easy to configure. If that is true, then NT4.0 must be really exceptional. I bought a copy as it first came out. Then you "upgrade" your Windows95 to NT. Ooops! Modem, CD-ROM... all disappeared! Did not know there were no drivers in it for those. It took me a while to recover. NT4.0 is like "kids don't play this at home" type of OS. 95 is more fool-proof, but then it is not a good OS becuse of being "too user-friendly"! (Ya, Right!)
But I didn't give up. Recently, we bought a Dual Pentium PRO and loaded it with NT4.0 server, and will link it to an older Novell server. I do see NT eroding NOVL's market. But then, I have been watching MSFT eroding NOVL in general anyways since NOVL bought WordPerfect (and then dumped it).
So, do you really think that NT4.0 alone would make MSFT go to 400?
Let me sleep on it. Teach me something, please! |
