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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: Rande Is who wrote (26448)	5/24/2000 6:01:00 PM
From: The Flying Crane	Read Replies (1) of 57584

>>"I don't know about you guys... but this drama wears me out. It forces investors to become emotional one way or another... I admit to having worn the market on my Shoulders the past few days. . . and I don't like it at all... when this ridiculous trading of papers begins to affect my Real World life then something is wrong."<< Symptom of overtrading? I guess you really mean 'traders' instead of 'investors' from the above statement. I've been sitting mostly on cash watching the charts and sell some of what I have left on my portfolio when price broke the supporting line. As I come to this thread for leisure reading, I realize that it is, for now, a daytrading thread. Despite the reversal of Nasdaq early downtrend today, I still see a lot of red ink on my quote machine. Not all of the stocks succeeded in making a comeback by end of day. To me, today rebound could be a headfake. I speculate that the downtrend is still in full force. Interest rates have increased for the nth times this year and gawd knows if they will raise it again next month. While almost everyone is talking about another winter rally coming up after the summer lull, I'm thinking about the possibility of a coming bear market that may refuse to go away. Remember how some of us was expecting one last rally in late March and April due to expectation of positive earning reports? Well, the market proved us all wrong (except Rande Is) and gave us the nastier correction we haven't seen for awhile. Will this winter rally be another false hope? Will this year be different from the last several years? Is interest rate this year higher than the last 3 years? If it is, will it make a difference? These are questions I'm asking myself when I walked thru the park and saw the 'beated-up' body with his/her tearful eyes starring at the empty space as described by Rande Is in his previous post #26390 (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=13766953). "Jeez!" I exclaimed when I noticed that there were not just one body but many more in the same or worse condition. How many will recover and still walk on the park again? How many who have not been beated up will stay away from the park to avoid the same fate? By looking at my chart, my interpretation is that Nasdaq is still on a downtrend. And I couldn't bring myself to buy against the overall downtrend even for a quick rebound. Could it be the stress of fighting against the trend that caused some traders to feel weary sooner? Rande Is, what do you think of the concept that this year dramatic rise of the tech stocks from last October to early March 2000 signified the peak of the bull market and therefore begin the first leg of a bear market? Do you think this is a possibility at all? If this is the case, then all future uptrends will be just headfakes that cannot be trusted. Sorry if my 2 cents opinion don't sit well with some here. But the thought of a coming bear market just wouldn't leave my head. I'm curious how many of you who read this feel the same sentiment? Good luck to everyone and be careful walking in the 'park'.

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