Crane, a few things. . . first of all. . . this is hardly a daytrading thread. If it were, we would have daytraders here. . . trading 1/8ths on a particular stock over and over all day long. . . with an average trade time of about 1 minute. I would venture to say that nobody here is strictly a daytrader.
Rather what I have been teaching is hybrid trading, which combines long and medium term investing with position trading with swing trading, depending on the momentum and the market. There is a link in the header which describes it better. . . though I am working on a book to better illustrate it.
Now, as I've said many times. . . on this low volume, it is easy to manipulate the markets. And a manipulated market is impossible to predict with consistent accuracy. So we can discuss it until the cows come home, but it hardly matters until the volume returns for good.
Today's volume was impressive. However, I am disappointed in the after hours market. . . that so few big techs had further interest. . . Except our wonderful China plays
which are totally hot in after hours. . . see XING, SINA, CPIH, CHINA, etc. . . .and Carpe's excellent call on QCOM.
As for whether this drama wears others out. . . it hardly matters whether you are an investor or trader. . . traders are worn out by the volatility. . . and investors are worn out because some have watched 40% of their money go down the toilet.
And regardless of the cause, it happened and it hurt many. Now I realize that many here were unharmed by the "crash", but we MUST remain sympathetic and pay our respects, [epecially to our newbies]. . . because who is to say that we don't miss the next call. . .and get hurt ourselves?
However, I believe that many of us are going to be playing things more conservatively than in the past. . . as I believe we will correct more often from here on out. . . and the entire notion of low risk investing has changed over the past few years.
Anyway. . regarding your question as to whether the bull is dead and the bear has taken over. . . I give that a zero percent chance. The bull is merely sleeping. . . and as sure as humans dream. . . the tech trees will continue growing to the sky. . . we will push valuations to their peaks over and over and over again. . . then we will correct. . . the bulls will run then the bears will feed. . . and that is a healthy market.
The technology revolution has barely begun. . . it will take perhaps decades to come to full fruition. . . where everything that can be invented will be invented and developed with the technology at hand. . . and a big leap would be necessary to get to the next major technology. . . which I imagine would be telepathy and the power of thought.
So regardless of whether we stumble into an occasional bear market or begin another manic rage. . .I [and many here] remain a perpetual bull.
Rande Is |
