I'm just spelling it how I see it, and I will never play games otherwise. I have no agenda other then trying to understand and learn, and pass on what I have learn. What I'm trying to do is come up with a reason for the bear to end as all investors should be doing. So far I have come up with only two reason. One is valuation and the other is the economy slowing and Fed leaving the picture. I'm using 2x five year growth rate equals PE, I have no idea if that is what the market is looking for. In the past it has been 1 to 1, so I'm placing a premium on the current market, given the exciting time we are in. That charts shows you how far we have come from historical norms. Sure people can say that it's wrong to use that chart because of the dot.com craze. I believe the above thinking is left over from when investors were inventing methods to justify the outsize valuation we were seeing and still see. Also, by listing the PE's of the stocks you re-posted from my post, I was pointing out that the big cap high tech stocks are still way out of whack with historical norms. I view stocks just as I do land, it's whatever the market will support, and right now the market is not supporting the current valuation.
As far as QCOM being dead money I was wrong it has been shrinking money. I when I said QCOM would be dead, I meant sideways till oct/sept time frame till the picture became clearer it wasn't till April when the sideways trend broke and the rest of the market started falling apart that valuation enter into the picture for me. As the months past since I said the above, I have started to believe that it will take longer for QCOM the stock to right itself, that realization was stated in the S&P thread just recently. If QCOM continues to drop say into the low 60's high 50's I will start buying since that is where I see value in QCOM as long as I feel the story is still intact. Heck, I might start buying higher if I feel Mr. Market is done revaluing itself.
Greg |
