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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals

ARIA 23.99

0.0%

Feb 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: Rolf Schoch who wrote ()	5/24/2000 10:28:00 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) of 4474

A personal outlook - Seems like lots of folks are just pining to believe this is the end of the biotech crash. This usually means it isn't. A look at my group of 14 genomics/bioinformatics stocks shows their performance over the last couple of weeks continues to be horrendous. This is obviously occurring with numerous non-genomic biotech stocks as well. There are many excellent biotech values around. There were many excellent biotech values in 1997. The vast majority of those were similarly valued in 1999. After the incredible spike during the past 6 months, who is to say we won't return to the same old pattern again. In fact, it may be MORE likely that biotechs will be ignored for an extended period NOW...since SO many people got burned SO badly in recent months. And the recent carnage has slammed the top tier to the same degree as the lowest tier. In the past week, Celera received notice of a stockholder lawsuit and Hyseq has had a management shakeup that was not received well at all. Thus I would be extremely cautious in re-entering biotech at this time. All the companies, top tier or not, represent great values and represent huge ongoing risk. In fact, the idea that investor resentment is higher in the 'known' names, from Millenium to Sepracor, must be considered. In my opinion, it's time to RESIST the temptation to get back in to biotech - and enter a sector whose IMMEDIATE future features REAL earnings. My favorite is the semiconductor equipment manufacturing industry...but there are many others. There will be time to re-enter biotech in the next 12-24 months. I'd be highly cautious when presented with an apparently compelling story involving 'value' and biology - look at the charts of just about any biotech stock and become appropriately frightened that the bottom may not have formed OR that the base may take a VERY long time to stabilize. It would be quite surprising to see the biotechs - a sector essentially devoid of profits - lead the market out of the gloom and doom. It may happen, but you would be betting against significant historical odds.

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