Here's some great quotes to think about:
Franco Madigliano (Nobel Prize winner)
He says he thinks the Dow Jones industrials could fall to 8,000 or 9,000, but the technology stocks are far more vulnerable. "In the case of the Internet, it is so hard to establish fundamentals, to understand how much is a bubble," he said. "In my view, it is very much a bubble." And then? "There is no bubble that quietly deflates. A bubble by its nature will burst. I don't know when. But it will happen, and the pain will be greater if the bubble has grown." He says the Federal Reserve is right to raise interest rates, but may be moving too slowly.
New York Times 3/31
Burton Malkiel (Princeton)
"So what happen next? Is this the end of the NASDAQ's big rise for the foreseeable future? No one knows. I have followed markets for a lifetime and know enough to understand that while valuations of NASDAQ stocks are still far from cheap, stock prices are essentially unpredictable. But I am also persuaded by the wisdom of Benjamin Graham, author of Security Analysis, who wrote that in the final analysis the stock market is not a voting mechanism, but a weighing mechanism. Valuation metrics have not changed. Eventually, every stock can only be worth the value of the cash flow it is able to earn for the benefit of investors. In the final analysis, true value will win out."
Wall Street Journal 4/14
Robert Shiller (Yale)
Right now, he says, the indexes are reaching a peak, for the fourth time since 1901. And if history is a guide, this latest peak - the highest of all - will be followed by a decline that might last for years before stocks turn up again into a new bull market. Just when the next downturn will begin and how it will unfold, Mr. Shiller says he does not know. He is confident, though, that after the fact, the experts will offer all sorts of rational - and incorrect - explanations.
New York Times 3/26
Jeremy Siegel (Wharton)
"What does all this mean? Our bifurcated market has been driven to an extreme not justified by any history. The excitement generated by the technology and communications revolution is fully justified, and there is no question that the firms leading the way are superior enterprises. But this doesn't automatically translate into increased shareholder values."
Wall Street Journal 3/14
Hope you enjoyed,
Bambs |
