At last. SI's Jeff was on vacation and thus the long delay.
Better late than never.
Some good stuff in SEC filings. From Ancor's DFAN14A -
Worldwide Fibre Channel Hubs and Switches Market Forecast.
Worldwide Fibre Channel Hub and Switch Factory Revenue, $M, 1999-2003
CAGR
1999-2003
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 (%)
Hubs, entry $15.6 $17.1 $17.8 $18.4 $18.6 4.5%
Hubs, managed 53.8 64.2 84.1 107.6 139.9 27.0%
Switches, loop 14.1 67.1 108.2 148.4 180.1 89.2%
Switches, fabric 100.7 186.8 387.0 693.3 1020.7 78.4%
Switches, directors 52.4 197.2 441.6 867.9 1428.9 128.6%
---- ----- ----- ----- ------ -----
Total $236.4 $532.3 $1038.7 $1835.7 $2788.2 85.3%
------ ------ ------- ------- ------- ----
Growth % 227.8% 125.1% 95.1% 76.7% 51.9%
Source: IDC
The following is an extrapolation of Ancor's potential revenue contribution to QLGC going forward. The market share and margin percentages are my estimations based on fab availability, marketing clout, and S&GA synergies that the merger affords.
2000
SwL - $67 x 10% = $6.7M
SwF - 187 x 15% = 28
SwD - 197 x 5% = 9.8
-----
44.5 x 45% = $20M Net
2001
SwL - 108 x 15% = 16
SwF - 387 x 30% = 116
SwD - 441 x 25% = 110
-----
242 x 50% = $121M Net
2002
SwL - 148 x 15% = 22
SwF - 693 x 35% = 242
SwD - 868 x 40% = 347
-----
611 x 55% = $336M Net
2003
Swl - 180 x 15% = 27
SwF - 1020 x 40% = 408
SwD - 1429 x 55% = 786
-----
1221 x 55% = $671M Net
Give or take a few % points, the general trend is patently clear. These are switch revenues only, excluding possible new FC SAN related collaborative products and InfiniBand developments. No tax or warrant related contortions are accounted for.
I don't know what the analysts are using for their models. HK projected a $500M run rate soon (time frame?) for QLGC, so it sure looks like a combined $1B run rate can be achieved perhaps as soon as 2002 and probably by 2003, or soon thereafter.
How much will the market value QLGC then? At least by then we won't be saying "I wish I had known then what I know now."
Douglas |
