The critical point was:
when FED raises the fed funds target they have to defend that target by pumping in a lot more money than they were pumping. If they don't, a lot more buckets will hit the skids and that is against Humphrey - Hawkins.
It is for this reason that we are not in a bear market and we're no where near one. All that has happened is just another correction to the excesses. Nothing new about that. Since FED abandoned money targeting formally in 1993 every year it occurs. It's cyclical. Isn't it interesting that each cycle break has a greater amplitude. The same occurred in the '60s and '70s with a slower frequency. Given the present operating procedure of rate targeting one of these amplitude changes will be chaotic, so FED must cease rate targeting and go back to aggregate targeting. They won't do that, but in the interim, because they won't, the bull market will persist onward.
Not one clown gets this and that's why they are clowns. Of course, not one Fed governor gets it either even though they all are varying degree of monetarist. You know there's big trouble brewing when some guy thinks he is one thing, but in fact, he doesn't know what he is, and he doesn't know what the label he ascribes to himself means though he wrote a book on it. They are just players in the drama about to unfold and they have no control over what must occur.
As soon as they let the Genie out of the bottle 8/12/82, they sewed everyone's fate. They had a chance to resurrect the error, but they threw that away when the august leadership of the Hoover Institute crapped out and returned to their great socialist roots. They couldn't hang with the Austrian School philosophy for one more day. In the final analysis they concluded that academic intellectualism finds the truth better than the squabbling ugly masses tearing themselves apart in the push and pull of the free market.
How provincial.
The trouble though is down stream and it is a mild mild day with a mild looking sky.
ps. The greatest and most relevant economic thought in the world occurs right here. In this place. This is where the entire world is getting its marching orders, so you can have 100% confidence it's prophetic. |
