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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 80.66

+3.0%

Feb 2 3:59 PM EST

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To: michael97123 who wrote (36543)	5/25/2000 10:19:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Michael...unless something has changed, Fed growth target (GDP) still in 3-3.5% range....we got 5.4% in Q1....2nd Quarter will likely be between 4-4.5%....given the big rate hikes this year, it is very likely that we will sink below 4% in the 2nd half...Banks have tightened big time, mortgage rates are having their intented effect now (look at Home Depot's stock! Anticipation....), antedoctal evidence of asset (housing) prices coming down in high market areas....negative wealth effect to kick in during 2nd/3rd quarter...Financials have been recovering, anticipating end of rate hikes....Greenie can build a pretty good case of the bubble having been "pricked"...of course, bears would love the Fed to scorch the Naz earth...but even with a more hawkish Fed (this year, new members)...Fed will feel satified that they've done enough (for now)... Now, the Fed MAY raise one more time in June (25)..but I think the Fed will hold after that....during June/July...we'll get enough data to show the slowing has started.........Fed will then wait and see their work in progress...Presidential election gives bulls add'l hope...historically Fed loathe to act leading up to that.. As soon as the market figures this out (and it is, slowly)...up trend will continue..

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