Leon - I caught Jacobs Tusaday morning. He was at a tchnology conference in new York. Dave faber cut right to the chase asking him shareholder liabilitiy issue in that the oriiginal CDMA promise was for 40 X analog capacity, but tenton NJ is only seeing 6X. Dr. Jaconcs said they always said CDMA would do 10 - 20 times analog capacity, and in fact with the 8 Kb vocoder they are seeing in the mid teens. W/ the 13 Kb vocoder ( a better quality system) he said 3/4 of that gain could be realized, along the lines of the NJ system, or 6 - 7 times that of anaolog.
Really, the 10 minute interview stuck around this issue. One more point was made when faber read a Honk Kong headline that impllied the first CDMA phones where flawed. Dr. Jacobs semi-awknowledged this, but said early bugs have been worked out and some 100,000 CDMA phones have been shipped.
My Opinions - Dr. Jacons has never been good (maybe intentially) at toughting QCOM stock. He always gives very technical, not "hype" type answers to interviewers questions. I do not think the interview was helpful or hurtful to the stock. In refernece to the capacity issue, I racall that when TDMA first came out, they claimed 3 X anaolg capacity. QCOM said at the time that CDMA would reach 10 X (Roughly 3X that of TDMA). TDMA proponents then said actually, under certain conditions TDMA could do 10 X capacity also. QCOM then said under those same conditions, CDMA would do 30 - 40 times (Again, 3 X TDMA). From what I have heard, TDMA in practice is realizing 2-3 X capacity, and CDMA 6 - 15 times. I don't see why anyone is so concerned with this capacity increase.
I also recall a phone interview with Dr. Jacobs from about a year ago in which he said 'uor proponents used to say CDMA would not work, we proved them wrong. Then they said it couldn't be standardized, we proved them wrong. Then they said it couldn't be commercialized, we proved them wrong. No they are saying we can't get it deployed, but soon it will be, and they'll have to find somthing else to complain about'. I guess "they" decided to complain about the capacity issue!
Good Luck to all! |
