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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: areokat who wrote (25363)	5/25/2000 2:46:00 PM
From: shamsaee	Read Replies (3) of 54805

Hi Tom I am not replying to your posts because of a couple of reasons.UF does not really want the topic discussed on the thread and I agree.I just made a simple observation on TA.In march,I was told by a TA specialist at prudential to go 50% cash,I brought it up on the thread and got grilled for it.Looking back now he was absolutely 100% correct so one can argue that LTBH in this case worked miserably. I now sit on a massive loss and can't forgive the stupidity of my actions.I believe one of the most famous phrases on wall street is "buy low sell High".I knew in my gut that the march run up was crazy and not valid from any angle you look at it.If one wants to argue about sound investing than sound investing says take your profit when investing turns into pure speculation. I also do not accept blanket dismissal of TA because parties that are dismissing it have no knowledge of it.I think it is imperative to study various methodologies about investing and once you understand them,then make up your own mind.A friend at Goldman Sachs who is a VP said something very profound to me back in december"investing in secular Bull Markets is easy,If you plan to be in this market long term study everything about the market and use what works for you". You might look at TA as daytrading tool,I would like to use it as a indicator of events that are on a more medium to long term horizon. The argument against selling is that you loose the potential of further stock appreciation.Does any one want to discuss the argument also when you watch your portfolio get cut in half.Couple of 50% shaves can set you back many years and nullify many good years of returns.I prefer to preserve my capital and gains rather than worry about am I selling too early and can I squeeze another 20 points out of it.Greed is a terrible thing and if selling when you are up 200% on a stock breaks the LTBH rules,so be it. Taking profit on a stock is not heresy,because after all we are all doing this to be able to have financial security.A let it Ride approach is just like gambling when you get to obseen valuations. Lat but not least,the GG is a 1 year old approach and had great returns mainly due to the best year ever in stock market history.Time will tell and one has to keep an open mind. Best regards and Feeling the same pain. Shahram

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