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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.91

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: John Doyle who wrote (52081)	5/25/2000 3:18:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

John, i'm mostly short the market via the index products, and now and then buy some of the more volatile stocks for the short term bounces. the only major LT positions i have taken in recent weeks were in tobacco and food stocks, and several basic materials as well as gold stocks. i had some utilities and insurance stocks as well, but i'm out of those for the time being. i have a small oil stock position too, a left-over of a larger position the bulk of which i have already sold. in short, i'm in defensive mode. i don't believe the time is right to wade in yet. yesterday's action looked encouraging, but the lack of follow-through doesn't. my guess is that we really do need to see a little more pain and less complacency before it's safe to play again. the market (SP 500) is higher now than when the Fed began raising rates...there's absolutely no guarantee that they're through or how many more hikes there will be. nothing of this is as of yet reflected in stock prices. there are of course many stocks i would be prepared to buy once valuations have come down a bit...but right now i'm staying with the defensive stuff. regards, hb

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