You have to ask yourself; Has anything fundamentally changed to ADIC is the last few months?
While you may not like my response, I believe there has been a fundamental change. ADIC had been showing terrific sequential quarterly revenue growth since Jul 98 through Oct 99. Here's how it's looked for 6 straight quarters: 25,314 41,571 49,144 54,044 57,191 62,988. Now look at the last 3 quarters together: 62,988 63,863 and 64,898. It's obvious that the sequential revenue growth has slowed dramatically when compared to those prior 6 quarters.
Does this mean the company should be trading at $12/share? IMO, no way--but there is a reason for the stock's weakness! Fundamentally, the stock is a terrific value at today's prices but the market isn't always very rational. I think we are seeing an over reaction to the slowing revenue growth and this is presenting a nice opportunity.
We are facing the proverbial falling knife and buyers should be completely aware of this.
I picked up some stock today, my first purchase of ADIC, as I believe the fundamentals for the longer term are solid. I also understand there could be additional downside that could make my timing look lousy! I liked the action at the close. I think the stock should find significant support in the $11s but if the overall market continues it's extremely weak bias, ADIC could drop a lot farther.
Just my opinion,
Michael |
