Ok, things are starting to look ugly now. We need Peter Lynch and O'Neil and Buffett and every deep thinker in stockland to go into a room, pretend to think for an afternoon (they could play bridge to pass the time for all I care), then issue a statement that all hell will break loose and the end of the world is near.
Historically, that seems to be the only thing that will snap us out of these bear markets. If our greatest thinkers still claim that we are near a long term bottom, and better days are ahead, we will get a 1929 style crash --- frankly, I can't figure out why it will happen, we have better tools, know so much more now, you'd think there's a way to prevent it.
But the answer maybe is in the deep hole we all dug out of these damn TECH P/Es over the years. There's just no simple way to knock 90% off nasdaq's avg P/E w/o a lot of pain.
I'm just an avg joe, but I'll get the ball rolling. Here's my predictions.
05/26/2000 : Nasdaq 2899.019. DOW : 9876.54321
05/30/2000 : Nasdaq 2598.091. DOW : 9123.45678
06/02/2000 : Nasdaq 1929.010. DOW : 9234.56781
07/03/2000 : Nasdaq 2000.0704 DOW : 9999.99999
Now, if the Gurus will all say in one voice : "This is hell, and we're already dead" , there's a chance we can get another 2 years good Bull run out of this (this time, I swear I'll sell at the peak and retire to Fiji or somewhere where there is no way to do real time stock trading).
(* Cloak On. Chief, it should be somewhere without tall buildings, there were too many people jumping out windows in 1929, I figured the term 'blood on the streets' had real meaning back then. Nowadays, office buildings are locked, this gives most people time to think it through. If they still want to do it, they could pop over to HomeDepot to buy a glass cutter or a blow torch. Would that be a good reason to buy HD? Or perhaps overdose on viagra is less messy? That would make PFE go up wouldn't it?*) |
