Haha :o)
Hello Leeza, one of the better questions I've heard in a while, in terms of considering the effect a manufacturing issue might have on an upstream supplier!
How are you doing, I hope well?
I think your scenario could play out something alongs the line of:
1M motherboards x ~ $1-3/motherboard (LDO minimum, maybe more) = $1-3M revenue. That sounds about right, for a motherboard with a retail cost of approximately $100, and a net cost between $50-75.
Assuming this were to take place this quarter, and using FY2000 July revenue of $38M to approximate the revenue for the current quarter, this might translate into additional revenue of approximately 3-8% for the current quarter.
If you use the same quarter's earnings number of $0.18 per share, it could add approximately $.01 earnings per share, assuming a quantity of 1M of each required component were sitting around, ready to be shipped.
Pretty cool ... I would not be surprised to see a little bump in SMTC "turns business" an upcoming quarter (or two), since the process would most likely be firm orders and shipments taking place within the same quarter.
Pretty cool question too ... but THAT is why you get paid the BIG BUCKS :o)
Non-margin, non-participatory, sitting and watching from the sidelines greetings to you and all SMTC longs. I smell another squall in the air, catching my breath and waiting for a little follow through before re-entering the market.
Remember the prior quarter when I got stopped out after SMTC fell following an analyst downgrade? I used that moment to re-evaluate my position, and went to cash except for a very little, based upon the words of the analyst. He said to paraphrase "he still thought SMTC was going to grow, but that he considered in light of the price appreciation that had occurred, the price already reflected that potential growth".
His words were an indirect warning that the market might correct in the near future. That $8 per share loss cost me some trading money, but saved me more of my overall investment money, since it motivated me to go liquid. I think this was one of the best lessons I have learned in a while regarding investing.
Given another correction to ensure we've fully re-tested the bottom, I expect that by late June I will be buying up as much as I can of my favorites at then current prices. SMTC is behaving relatively well in comparison to the general market, but there is also no doubt it is being dragged down along with the crowd.
Nothing has changed about this company side I first looked at it (actually SMTC is and always will be my first investment ever), other than the fact it has gotten better.
They say (whoever they are anyways) you should never fall in love with a company, poo poo that, I LOVE SMTC, and I think you just might also. Frankly ... I don't blame ya!
Take care Leeza :o)
Regards, JB
P.S. mucho-grande appreciado for your CC notes, thank you for the post.
SONET (for Synchronous Optical Networking) is gonna be HUGE. SONET moves like 52.8MBps, which if I remember right is 22 or 24 DS1's plus a DS3. Um, thats a lotta data my friend.
In case there is any doubt, SONET and ATM WILL BE running the show in the future. SONET provides the ability to move multiple different types of data through the same pipe at ridiculously fast speeds ... can you say game over?
Agree with Mr. Poe 110% on this one, and agree with you 110% also on two points you made, there is going to be plenty more splitza's in the future, and there IS a similarity between SMTC today and PMCS three years ago.
I wonder if anyone else reads into the value of your posts, please tell me they do, because a good thing should not go unnotived. |
